Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 136,990
2 South Dakota 134,737
3 Rhode Island 132,659
4 Utah 121,327
5 Tennessee 118,135
6 Arizona 116,355
7 Iowa 112,661
8 Oklahoma 111,799
9 Wisconsin 110,429
10 Nebraska 110,335
11 Arkansas 109,915
12 South Carolina 108,686
13 New Jersey 106,089
14 Alabama 105,628
15 Kansas 105,069
16 Indiana 103,700
17 Mississippi 103,103
18 Idaho 102,375
19 Illinois 100,453
20 Delaware 100,028
21 Nevada 99,450
22 New York 99,320
23 Montana 99,069
24 Georgia 98,510
25 Wyoming 98,144
26 Florida 97,993
27 Kentucky 97,343
28 Texas 97,257
29 Louisiana 96,391
30 Missouri 96,153
31 Minnesota 94,910
32 Massachusetts 94,735
33 California 93,393
34 New Mexico 92,161
35 Connecticut 89,692
36 North Carolina 88,947
37 Ohio 88,424
38 Alaska 87,503
39 Pennsylvania 83,156
40 Colorado 82,766
41 West Virginia 80,808
42 Michigan 80,482
43 Virginia 73,936
44 Maryland 69,803
45 District of Columbia 64,467
46 New Hampshire 64,308
47 Washington 49,295
48 Puerto Rico 45,519
49 Oregon 40,020
50 Maine 39,425
51 Vermont 33,123
52 Hawaii 21,663

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 804
2 New Jersey 461
3 Minnesota 445
4 Rhode Island 428
5 New York 364
6 Pennsylvania 362
7 Massachusetts 326
8 New Hampshire 322
9 Florida 300
10 Connecticut 292
11 Colorado 285
12 North Dakota 284
13 Delaware 283
14 Illinois 278
15 South Dakota 256
16 Maine 250
17 Alaska 240
18 Vermont 214
19 Nebraska 206
20 South Carolina 202
21 West Virginia 202
22 Maryland 200
23 Oklahoma 199
24 Virginia 191
25 Montana 190
26 Ohio 190
27 Idaho 184
28 Wisconsin 183
29 District of Columbia 182
30 Tennessee 182
31 Puerto Rico 181
32 Iowa 171
33 Indiana 159
34 Wyoming 157
35 Kentucky 152
36 North Carolina 147
37 Georgia 146
38 Utah 145
39 Texas 144
40 Oregon 124
41 Washington 120
42 Missouri 115
43 New Mexico 103
44 Nevada 102
45 Louisiana 98
46 Arizona 91
47 Mississippi 77
48 Kansas 69
49 Alabama 67
50 Arkansas 66
51 California 60
52 Hawaii 57

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,790
2 New York 2,590
3 Massachusetts 2,519
4 Rhode Island 2,488
5 Mississippi 2,379
6 Arizona 2,343
7 Connecticut 2,227
8 Louisiana 2,194
9 South Dakota 2,191
10 Alabama 2,177
11 Pennsylvania 1,982
12 North Dakota 1,967
13 Indiana 1,947
14 New Mexico 1,896
15 Arkansas 1,876
16 Illinois 1,873
17 Iowa 1,851
18 South Carolina 1,794
19 Georgia 1,768
20 Michigan 1,746
21 Tennessee 1,741
22 Nevada 1,724
23 Texas 1,695
24 Kansas 1,692
25 Oklahoma 1,685
26 Delaware 1,610
27 Ohio 1,603
28 Florida 1,578
29 District of Columbia 1,526
30 West Virginia 1,526
31 California 1,520
32 Missouri 1,466
33 Kentucky 1,413
34 Montana 1,399
35 Maryland 1,391
36 Wisconsin 1,265
37 Minnesota 1,241
38 Virginia 1,222
39 Wyoming 1,211
40 Nebraska 1,192
41 North Carolina 1,167
42 Idaho 1,114
43 Colorado 1,076
44 New Hampshire 920
45 Washington 704
46 Puerto Rico 671
47 Utah 670
48 Oregon 580
49 Maine 556
50 Alaska 408
51 Vermont 368
52 Hawaii 329

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Oklahoma 144
2 Montana 9
3 West Virginia 7
4 Michigan 5
5 New Jersey 5
6 Georgia 4
7 Nevada 4
8 Florida 3
9 Kentucky 3
10 Mississippi 3
11 Nebraska 3
12 New Mexico 3
13 New York 3
14 Oregon 3
15 Pennsylvania 3
16 Tennessee 3
17 Texas 3
18 Alabama 2
19 Arizona 2
20 California 2
21 District of Columbia 2
22 Idaho 2
23 Iowa 2
24 Louisiana 2
25 Maryland 2
26 Minnesota 2
27 Ohio 2
28 Rhode Island 2
29 South Carolina 2
30 Virginia 2
31 Arkansas 1
32 Connecticut 1
33 Illinois 1
34 Indiana 1
35 Massachusetts 1
36 North Carolina 1
37 Puerto Rico 1
38 Utah 1
39 Washington 1
40 Wisconsin 1
41 Alaska 0
42 Colorado 0
43 Delaware 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Kansas 0
46 Maine 0
47 Missouri 0
48 New Hampshire 0
49 North Dakota 0
50 South Dakota 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 353,737 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 336,389 2 99
Bent Colorado 266,272 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 244,908 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 244,702 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 137,578 191 93
Richland South Carolina 106,814 1017 67
York South Carolina 103,663 1171 62
Orange California 84,197 2075 33
Pierce Washington 48,634 2898 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Gove Kansas 8,346 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,515 1785 43
Davidson Tennessee 1,321 2026 35
York South Carolina 1,306 2039 35
Richland South Carolina 1,277 2070 34
Pierce Washington 682 2727 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons